Two Ultimatums

A short comment on political chess

A couple of weeks ago, the Cape Independence Advocacy Group levelled an ultimatum at the DA - either they grant the referendum they promised, or else they will face a challenge at the ballot.

Yesterday, the Solidariteit Movement levelled their own ultimatum - they have demanded the government tell them when the sunset period for the race laws will arrive.

These seem rather fruitless on the face of it, but this move is not intended to win the game immediately, but to force the other player to move.

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The main political difference between black and white South Africa is where the central moral locus lies, the prime legitimation criterion. For the black political community, it lies with racial interests. For the white South African community, it lies with a set of Liberal values which espouse nonracialism.

This makes it difficult to get consensus on issues that are necessary to oppose black supremacy. Even among otherwise sensible people, sentimental aversion to, or prejudice against ethnic solidarity, even for temporary pragmatic reasons, is fairly strong among a significant portion of us.

This liberal Southafricanism, a belief in a civic nationalist community with no real character other than a nebulous shared notion of progress and fairness, is tough to break, because repudiating it is akin to teaching a panicked mother in a falling plane to put her oxygen mask on first before assisting her kids - she is likely to get giddy in the rarified air before she has time to strap her child in.

But this liberal sentiment weakening recently, as the post-Mandela era forces whites to choose between very radical visions of our place in society. We are offered either eternal punishment and self-flagellation, potentially annihilation in the long term, or open rebellion. The rosy middle-ground perspective is starting to lose its credibility as the black elites harden their stance and become more self-confident, and the economy crumbles.

For those of us who wish to salvage a little respite on our native turf, there are at present only two realistic strategies - both of these are strategies for breaking up South Africa: Cape independence, and Afrikaner self-determination.

The CIAG’s ultimatum was levelled at the Liberal opposition party, which governs the Western Cape province. This position puts the Cape independence movement in a win-win situation - if we are granted the referendum, we win (because we have majority support) and if we are denied, it strengthens our capacity to shape the post-independence landscape by setting us up for forcing a provincial coalition next year with the newly formed Referendum Party.

For Solidariteit, the position to be leveraged is internal legitimacy for moving toward a more aggressive stance on self-determination. The Ankerdorp Plan is still in its infancy, but a major strategic reform is coming which has the potential to create a serious and sustainable option for internal resettlement, security and economic growth.

By calling for a sunset date to the BEE laws, the movement forces the ANC to either fix a date for abolishing them, or else declare a permanent racial hierarchy, a caste system. If the latter is achieved, the discursive position for Afrikaner nationalism becomes unassailable by any sane person among the minority groups.

The ability to lobby, organise and consolidate their position becomes profoundly stronger when the government makes their position unambiguous.

To those of us on the right, this may sometimes seem silly, but forcing decisions and removing room for sentimentality and deniability is vital when one’s position is not fully established.

Of course, to be able to play this game, one needs to already have a great deal of credibility, and enough support to place real pressure on the authorities. The CIAG has demonstrated the capacity to mobilise crowds, create popular legitimacy in the majority of voting-age Kaapenaars, and Solidariteit has enough clout in the artisanal union sector and private institutions, as well as the Afrikaans-speaking public, that they can pressure the ANC into making their own laws unenforcible in public sector contracts (see here).

Additionally, one must have a backup plan - for the CIAG, it is the newly formed Referendum Party, and for Solidariteit it is the Ankerdorp Plan. This means you can make gains however your opponent responds to your ultimatum.

And so, we move forward.