I don't see anything wrong with your idea about what the West's geopolitical plan should be for the region. South Africa government sympathies obviously lie with China, and there is no reason to assume that such sympathies will not increase as China grows more powerful, so supporting an independent Cape, which for pragmatic reasons will be pro-Western, is only logical. Reinforcing Mozambique as an ally also makes perfect sense. Supporting KwaZulu Natal independence, while more risky, also makes sense.
Because Cape is a multi-ethnic region, supporting that country's independence against a Chinese ally need not be embarrassing for liberals in the West. Liberal Westerners could just talk about the rights of minorities, the incompetence of the ANC government, and the like. Mainstream conservatives could talk about communism and the Chinese connection. It would be an easy justification.
The only impediment to such action by the West, are risk-averse elites. People may not realize this, but Western elites are extremely risk-averse to changing anything, and their weak support for Ukraine before the full invasion by Russia, shows how even in geopolitics, there is a lot of timidity, although the China angle in the case of South Africa can change things.
Don't count on much just yet. Washington and London lack basic competence and have no vision that is not hallucinatory. This may start to change after the humiliation in Ukraine becomes impossible to explain away. The top-level leaders are useless. But some of their successors will have already started thinking ahead.
The fragmentation of the global economy and the arms trace ensure that the US eventually takes action to secure trade routes, minerals and allies. You are well-placed. The despoilation of whites will continue a while longer, but state failure will constrain Pretoria's malice, while China has to rely on the ANC.
Brilliant piece of future history. Thanks Robert.
I don't see anything wrong with your idea about what the West's geopolitical plan should be for the region. South Africa government sympathies obviously lie with China, and there is no reason to assume that such sympathies will not increase as China grows more powerful, so supporting an independent Cape, which for pragmatic reasons will be pro-Western, is only logical. Reinforcing Mozambique as an ally also makes perfect sense. Supporting KwaZulu Natal independence, while more risky, also makes sense.
Because Cape is a multi-ethnic region, supporting that country's independence against a Chinese ally need not be embarrassing for liberals in the West. Liberal Westerners could just talk about the rights of minorities, the incompetence of the ANC government, and the like. Mainstream conservatives could talk about communism and the Chinese connection. It would be an easy justification.
The only impediment to such action by the West, are risk-averse elites. People may not realize this, but Western elites are extremely risk-averse to changing anything, and their weak support for Ukraine before the full invasion by Russia, shows how even in geopolitics, there is a lot of timidity, although the China angle in the case of South Africa can change things.
Don't count on much just yet. Washington and London lack basic competence and have no vision that is not hallucinatory. This may start to change after the humiliation in Ukraine becomes impossible to explain away. The top-level leaders are useless. But some of their successors will have already started thinking ahead.
The fragmentation of the global economy and the arms trace ensure that the US eventually takes action to secure trade routes, minerals and allies. You are well-placed. The despoilation of whites will continue a while longer, but state failure will constrain Pretoria's malice, while China has to rely on the ANC.
My money is going on you long-term.